Lucky to be Going South

Our freezers at the local meat locker and in our rig filled with various cuts of deer, elk and moose. The heirloom tomatoes, peppers and tomatillo plants are all pulled out and the harvest converted to spicy salsa and pasta sauce that we'll enjoy throughout the winter to remind us of summer. The orchard and the garden soil have been prepped for next year's growing season. We are lucky enough to be able to hook up and move South before the weather starts to turn in Northern Idaho.

Almost ready for dinner.

Every year we become more and more aware of how so many other people in the US don't have the luxury of what we too often take for granted. Everyone has seen the pictures of the unemployed waiting in soup lines during the Great Depression. When you try to tell a propaganda believing, willfully ignorant, mainstream media watching, math challenged American that we are currently seeing similar levels of social ills in this country as existed in the 1930's, they act as if you've lost your mind. Some of them will tout the usual talking points about the 5.1% unemployment rate, high corporate profits, and stock market heights. They don't understand the economic or mathematical concepts that render these statistics meaningless at best and outright lies at worst.

The reason you don't see lines of people waiting in soup lines today is because the government has figured out how to disguise suffering through modern technology. Today, there are 46 million people in an electronic soup line paid for through EBT cards (with JP Morgan reaping billions in profits by processing the transactions and Walmart trying to maintain cash flow by selling the "food").

In 1937, even with women not working outside the home and very few people living pats 65 years old, the labor participation rate was 75%. Today, with the majority of women capable and willing to work and older Americans working well into their 60s, the BLS actually expects a critical thinking person to believe the labor participation rate is only 62.4%, the lowest since 1977. It's an obvious lie. The true participation rate should exceed the 1937 rate. With the addition of women in the workforce, using the 75% participation rate today yields an unemployment rate of 21%. The 21% rate is very close to the figure determined by John Williams at Shadowstats. An unbiased assessment of the facts reveals unemployment numbers and people on government assistance numbers that match or exceed those of the Great Depression.

I wonder whether the corporate mainstream media purposely chooses not to talk about the true state of affairs because their function is to perpetuate the lie that all is well in America. In our little part of rural America we pass churches that distribute free food to anyone in the community who is in need. This occurs in an area where people can easily grow and hunt for their meals. The lines for these food distribution events are immense, even in a low population area. I'm sure there are similar scenes across every city in America on a daily basis. People dependent on food banks and living in homeless shelters are at record levels. But you don't see the pictures of this in the media. How does this fit with Ben Bernanke's self congratulatory book tour about how he saved America by secretly handing Wall Street and foreign bankers $16 trillion?

Before 

During

After

For the average American family, the US economy has been in recession since 2000, with a deeper recession arriving in 2008. While there have been 12 million jobs added in the US since 2000, the working age population has grown by 40 million. Of those 12 million jobs added, 10 million were in the government controlled or manipulated health, education, and social services (HES) sectors. In the meantime, millions of good paying manufacturing jobs have been destroyed and replaced by a couple of million low paying service jobs. We know far too many people that take jobs at places like Amazon. In exchange for a seasonal job paying $11.50/hour and providing a free camp site for a few months, they are willing to drive/tow their RVs 2,500 miles round trip or more out of their way and commute 30-40 minutes each way to that low paying job. Doing it for fun would be one thing, but many of these people actually need and rely on the substandard paycheck. Combine that with the decrepit RVs we see parked at Walmarts and on public land throughout the West, and it's obvious the retirement/RV dream isn't always what the magazines, manufacturers and blogs portray.

As David Stockman points out, Bernanke in his new book, and the vested interests (ie., big banks and big government) he has always served, continue to spew disingenuous propaganda to cover up the fact average American households continue to experience depression-like conditions. When your real household income is lower than it was in 1989, while your basic living costs for food, energy, transportation, rent, housing, healthcare, taxes, and education have skyrocketed, you just might be experiencing a depression.

All economic indicators are flashing red and warning of a deeper recession. Retail sales, which account for two thirds of economic activity, are falling. Corporate profits are plunging and without financial engineering corporate earnings would disappear. The last two employment reports were horrific. The number of job layoff announcements by corporations is up 36% year to date and have already exceeded the total for 2014.

Wall Street is looking to fleece a few more muppets before their party is over. They've created a convenient short covering rally despite the awful economic news, ridiculously high valuations, and record levels of margin debt. Manipulating the markets, utilizing free money from the Fed to buyback shares and layer on derivative exposure, producing fake profits through government sanctioned accounting fraud, and using high frequency trading machines to manipulate markets can only get you so far. The up cycles are fun to play with, and we may even see a new round of QE to temporarily push the markets to new highs, but you'd better be nimble with your trades.

For those with "secure" jobs or the financial means to enjoy retirement life right now, count your blessings. However, we should all remain mindful of what life will be like if an ever increasing segment of our society doesn't share in our good fortune. None of us is an island. 

When we lived in Philadelphia in the late 80s and 90s, our friends in the suburbs used to tell us "the Hell with Philadelphia...who cares if the place falls apart." I used to reply "You should care...What do you think being a suburb of Hell is going to do to your property values?"

For now, we enjoy the retirement lifestyle and head South for the Winter. See you in six months Idaho. We'll miss your mountain vistas, trees, crystal clear mountain lakes and streams, and rich farmlands.

This Will be Worse Than 2008

I'm usually early with these. I was early in 2000, 2008, and now 2015. But it's better to be early (including early retirement) than too late. The signs were clear that the markets have been artificially propped up by the Fed's monetary interventions for the past six years. The leaks in this bubble were covered in November 2013 and April 2015.

You can't spur demand in an economy by simply issuing more debt. Debt is only productive when it is used to finance an asset that produces more than it costs, including the carrying expense of the debt, and is paid down from the cash flow produced by that asset.

Almost none of the debt issued by corporations and governments over the last eight years has been of that character. It has instead been spent on social programs, sub prime asset purchases, stock buybacks, and other balance sheet games (AKA financial engineering).

Yes, you can levitate markets for a while by doing this, but it's simply leverage expansion and lies that enrich a privileged few, not economic expansion that is behind the alleged "gains" and the "roaring" stock market.

The expansion of debt over the last eight years is unprecedented. It creates a friction in the economy that will be more difficult to overcome than any previous economic downturns. No political party is seriously addressing this. It's not as convenient a wedge issue as immigration, gay marriage, Planned Parenthood, etc.

To view the state of the economy accurately you must remove the new debt issued in a given quarter from the GDP computation. This is first year Algebra (is that still taught in schools?). If you do that, then most of the so-called "growth" since 2009 disappears like the air in Tom Brady's footballs.

How much should you pay for a dollar of corporate earnings when the "growth" is mostly fictional and generated by issuing more and more debt instead of building things because you sent all of your manufacturing to China and Mexico? Those and other governments have been playing the debt-issuance game as well. This is a global trend where governments compete to lie about their economic statistics. We have squandered the last eight years where we could have solved these problems, but instead we drank the koolaid.

We may have some snapback rallies from oversold conditions, but there will be more downside to come. If you are long equities (especially the Nasdaq) and corporate bonds (especially high yield), you should not be sleeping well at night.

The Ultimate RV Boondocking Rig

On our drive from the country into the big city (Bonners Ferry, pop. 2,500), we pass by the venerable Park 'n Sell. For the low rate of $30/month, you can park your RV, truck, boat, or trailer in a high visibility spot. Hopefully, it will sell.

We saw this little beauty in the lot the other day. We had to lock up the brakes, make a Tokyo Drift hard right, and take a closer look.

Need to get away from it all? This handy blade will clear the way. No more Canadian tourists and pesky Forest Service or BLM gates to hinder your fun.

I used to think those big International flatbed trucks were hefty. This one looks like a Tonka toy next to the bugout mobile.

Susan thought changing a flat would be tough (check out the bumper sticker).

But that's not a problem when you have a built-in crane to move the spare.

 Instead of hydraulic slide outs that always want to fail, this beauty has "foldouts." 
Keep it simple. Keep it real.

And nice heavy duty ramps to get your extra armoured personnel carrier up into the rig. I suppose you could also hang your $4,000 mountain bikes on them.

And the luxury doesn't stop on the outside. Inside you have wall to wall carpet and neutral tone paint awaiting your personalized touch. What will you add?

Take the handy interior ladder to the roof to tend to your solar panels and adjust the sights on your Browning M2.

Best of all, this baby is an automatic, so Susan could share the driving duties and conduct other basic mop up operations.

It was hard to get her to leave, but when I told her one tire alone probably costs $4,000, she bid a sad farewell.

Maybe Trump is right?

I don't particularly like Donald Trump's style. Enough has been said about that topic and there's no need to rehash it here.

However, I don't particularly like John McCain's views, attitudes, opinion, or character either. He's a corrupt, warmongering, politician from a well-connected family who has grown tremendously wealthy from his time in office. We can debate his intelligence, but the fatal evidence of his low IQ is that he doomed his 2008 ticket by choosing Sarah Palin to be his running mate.

Back in 2008, I ran across this article written about John McCain's record. I was shocked that a Google search turned it up again. You do have to be impressed by the fortitude he showed while imprisoned by the North Vietnamese, but that shouldn't mean criticizing his record, actions, and positions should be off limits. Focusing on Trump's inelegant manner distracts from the core issue: McCain lives in a glass house and shouldn't be throwing stones at Donald Trump or anyone else.

THE TRUE MILITARY RECORD OF JOHN MCCAIN WRITTEN BY AN ACTIVE MARINE.

9/03/08

McCain has never really earned anything. He is from a wealth pampered background and not fit to lead this nation. 

A “war hero” doesn’t finished 894th out of 899 and still get stationed at a Navy champagne unit and promoted ahead of all but two of his 898 other classmates. 

A “war hero” doesn’t crash three U.S. Navy jets out of sheer incompetence and ineptitude, including two during non-combat training sessions. 

A “war hero” doesn’t get written up on drunk-and-disorderly, fraternization, disobeying orders, and insubordination charges more than two dozen times in less than three years.

A “war hero” doesn’t get promoted to squadron commander of the air field named after his own grandfather immediately after crashing his third airplane. A “war hero” doesn’t have all the military records that cover his time in Vietnam and all disciplinary actions against him censored and sealed “as a matte r of national security.” A “war hero” doesn’t get 28 medals awarded all after-the-fact “for bravery” for no other reason than being shot down and captured and then go on a celebrity public relations tour because he’s the son of two acclaimed Navy admirals. A “war hero” doesn’t repeatedly cheat on the wife who’s back in the states waiting for him, and then cheat on her more when he returns to the states, and then divorce and abandon her.

A “war hero” doesn’t systematically vote against every single pay and benefit increase for military and veterans throughout his entire political career, all the while claiming to be “the soldier’s Congressman,” and then take credit for the passage of a G.I. benefits bill he that voted AGAINST. A “war hero” McCain III lost jet number one in 1958 when he plunged into Corpus Christi Bay while practicing landings. He was knocked unconscious by the impact coming to as the plane settled to the bottom. McCain’s second crash occurred while he was deployed in the Mediterranean. “Flying too low over the Iberian Peninsula,” Timberg wrote, “he took out some power lines [reminiscent of the 1998 incident in which a Marine Corps jet sliced through the cables of a gondola at an Italian ski resort, killing 20] which led to a spate of newspaper stories in which he was predictably identified as the son of an admiral.”

McCain’s third crash three occurred when he was returning from flying a Navy trainer solo to Philadelphia for an Army-Navy football game. Timberg reported that McCain radioed, “I’ve got a flameout” and went through standard relight procedures three times before ejecting at one thousand feet. McCain landed on a deserted beach moments before the plane slammed into a clump of trees. McCain’s fifth loss happened during his 23rd mission over North Vietnam on Oct. 26, 1967, when McCain’s A-4 Skyhawk was shot down by a surface-to-air missile. McCain ejected from the plane breaking both arms an d a leg in the process and subsequently parachuted into Truc Bach Lake near Hanoi. For 23 combat missions (an estimated 20 hours over enemy territory), the U.S. Navy awarded McCain a Silver Star, a Legion of Merit for Valor, a Distinguished Flying Cross, three Bronze Stars, two Commendation medals plus two Purple Hearts and a dozen service medals. “McCain had roughly 20 hours in combat,” explains Bill Bell, a veteran of Vietnam and former chief of the U.S. Office for POW/MIA Affairs — the first official U.S. representative in Vietnam since the 1973 fall of Saigon. “Since McCain got 28 medals,” Bell continues, “that equals out to about a medal-and-a-half for each hour he spent in combat. There were infantry guys — grunts on the ground — who had more than 7,000 hours in combat and I can tell you that there were times and situations where I’m sure a prison cell would have looked pretty good to them by comparison.

The question really is how many guys got that number of medals for not being shot down.” For years, McCain has been an unchecked master at manipulating an overly friendly and biased news media. The former POW turned Congressman, turned U.S. Senator, has managed to gloss over his failures as a pilot by exaggerating his military service and lying about his feats of heroism. McCain has sprouted a halo and wings to become America’s POW-hero presidential candidate.

This article was written by an active, unnamed Marine. It was published by Gale Toensing founder of the Corner Report.com and she sent it to me. It is a true account of McCain’s real war record and evidence of his lack of fitness for the office of President.

iFlop

I have a split personality with regard to Apple.

Personality One: I've made a tremendous amount of money speculating on Apple stock over the last ten years. You'll never go broke betting on the stupidity of the American consumer.

Personality Two: Apple is and always has been one of the most overrated and hypocritical corporations in the world. There isn't time or space here to cover all the facts supporting this assessment. Walmart has more integrity.

Since it's announcement last Fall, I've been amazed at the ridiculous hype surrounding Apple's latest attempt to fleece the sheep....the iWatch.

What you have is an overpriced fashion statement that has a lousy battery life, is relatively bulky, and doesn't have its own internal intelligence to do much (it relies on your iPhone). The one thing it does well is serve as an expensive workout timer and, provided you don't mind small storage, a means of music playback to bluetooth headphones. That is a nice capability, but is it really worth $350?

That, of course, is for the plastic piece-o-crap version. The metal version is around $700 and it gets worse from there. Apple is literally trying to see what the limits of their customer exploitation may be. 

Apple may finally be starting to run out of lemmings. Some preliminary channel data is suggesting that sales have been absolutely abysmal since the first rush of iDiots, who just had to buy one sight unseen. Volumes have collapsed over the last couple of months.

Full disclosure: I sold all of our final Apple holdings with the late April
iWatch launch hype spike. The next move will be to short with conviction when the markets finally do begin to roll over (which may be sooner than anyone thinks).

Beating the Heat Without AC

It's been warmer than usual up here in Northern Idaho. On a couple of days it even hit 95 degrees inside our rig. The hottest time is from about 4pm to 7pm before the nighttime cooling sets in. Fortunately, we have 30-35 degree swings in temperature at night, so we get 14-16 hours a day of cool temperatures even on the hottest days.

We pride ourselves on being able to boondock in conditions most people couldn't handle, but dealing with temperatures in the teens is a lot easier than dealing with temperatures pushing 100 degrees. Now we could fire up the generator and turn on the AC, but that would be admitting defeat! Instead we've chosen to deal with it the old fashioned way.

Our first strategy has been to save the hardest physical activities for the 4-5 hour period in the mornings before the temperature hits 80 degrees. This has been our time for gardening, working on the forest, and hiking. After 80 degrees, it's time to find a shady spot for the day and just relax, or head up to our favorite mountain swimming holes. Fortunately, low humidity and the scarcity of bugs works to our advantage.

One of our favorites is a 20 minute drive away. It's worth the extra drive time. The water is perfect, the setting is private, there's a nice mix of shade and sunny areas, and the creek has a nice diversity of deep pools, sandy shallows, and water chutes among the rocks.

Sometimes you need to be in the sun after swimming in a cold mountain stream.

Jake doesn't really know how to relax. His motto is "I'll sleep when I'm dead".

However, warmer weather does have its benefits. The sweet corn is waist high by July, the squash and raspberries have been coming in regularly, and the heirloom tomatoes are ripening early. There's been very little rain and loads of sun, so we've been able to crank up our refrigerator/freezer on electric during the day to keep the cold beverages and ice flowing. The solar panels easily power it and the batteries fully recharge every day (we never draw down our batteries below 70%).

We're going back to our normal weather in the 80s starting this weekend. Time to get back to work. No more lounging in the shade in a hammock with a cold beverage all afternoon.

Back in the Saddle

Back in my working days, I would use a unique system to taste and evaluate wine samples. I first learned the technique working for a Sonoma-based winemaking consulting firm called Enologix. I went on to use this technique at several different wineries where I made wine and for our own wine brand Rocinante.

The beauty of the system is that you can quickly evaluate hundreds of samples a day and have a numerical result can easily be manipulated in a database to give you predictive information about a wine style and the type of consumer who will prefer that wine style. This is valuable winemaking information, not least because you can adjust your winemaking techniques to match the markets and price points you are trying to hit.

However, the best part may be that the technique lends itself particularly well to blind, informal group tastings at home. Someone who has never tasted wine can participate next to a seasoned wine professional and both will have fun and learn something about wine styles and, most importantly, wine styles they actually prefer (not wine styles they have been told to prefer or want to think they prefer). We did hundreds of these tastings over the years when we still had a "normal" house. We'd have anywhere from four to 12 people at a tasting and the food and drink would carry long into the night. 

Since we've been on the road, we haven't had the venue to do one of these tastings. Now that we spend the summers up in North Idaho, we've mentioned these tastings to friends up here and have had a lot of offers from them to provide venues.

Since it's been warm, I decided to blind taste a group of Brut style sparkling wines from the U.S. made in the traditional Champagne style. We had Roederer Estate, Domaine Chandon, Mumm Napa Valley, Gruet, Gloria Ferrer, and Scharffenberger.

In the beginning, it was all very dignified.

By the end, things were a little more loose.

This flight of wines was interesting because of the subtle differences. We had some great results that even surprised me. One of our friends has a brother visiting from Australia later this month. I think we'll need to do Australian Shiraz vs. U.S. Syrah in their honor. I'd like to see the Aussies pick a Rocinante Syrah as their favorite!